‘It’s never happened here’ – 2025 could be the first time in history the US population shrinks

Mass. — The United States could achieve a first in 2025.

The population might shrink for the first time in the nation’s history.

If it happens, it won’t be by much.

But even a small decline could signify the start of a troubling trend that will affect just about everyone.

“It would be significant because it’s never happened here,” said Mark Melnik, the director of economic and public policy research at the Donahue Institute at UMass.

The United States did not lose population during major periods in history, like the Civil War and COVID.

“We’re seeing the confluence of a number of interesting demographic trends right now,” explained Melnik.

First is a declining birth rate.

“What we call natural increase, the number of births minus the number of deaths, has been shrinking over time. In fact, in some of our older states in the US, we now have seen that reversed where there’s actually more deaths than births.”

The other major factor for population decline is immigration.

With a tighter border and mass deportations, the numbers are way down.

That affects the job market.

“If you look at the economy of Massachusetts in the last decade, the Latino workforce alone grew by 49 percent, right? So, it added more than 148,000 jobs to the talent and need for workers,” said Eneida Roman, the president and CEO of We are ALX, a Wellesley-based group focused on Latino economic issues.

She said there might be less interest for immigrants to come here in the future, which would reduce the number of the number of young workers.

“I have faith in this country,” said Roman. “But it’s inevitable that the damage that has been done right now is going to take some time to recover.”

The combination of fewer babies and fewer immigrants comes just as more American workers will retire and ultimately need additional medical care and other support services.

Josh Stillwagon, Ph.D., who heads the Babson College economics division, said this so-called ‘Silver Tsunami’ will put a huge strain on the federal budget.

“A lot of our financial outlook is sort of based on the idea that there is this pay as you go system for Social Security and Medicare, and with an aging population, you have to support that, so that’s concerning for sure.”

Melnik said this population shift could spark a doom cycle and impact just about everyone in our capitalistic society.

“The basic concept is consumers are out there and spending money, so sure, if we have flat population growing, or shrinking, then it inhibits the ability for the economy to continue to grow.”

He said seven out of Massachusetts’ 14 counties already have death rates that exceed birth rates.

These tend to be out in the western part of the state.

In New England, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Main have consistently had more deaths that births in recent years.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates as more information becomes available.

Download the FREE Boston 25 News app for breaking news alerts.

Follow Boston 25 News on Facebook and Twitter. | Watch Boston 25 News NOW

©2025 Cox Media Group